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Why the EPA should find against “Endangerment” - Back in July, as a result of last year’s Supreme Court ruling on Massachusetts v. EPA, the U.S Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) issued an “Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking: Regulating Greenhouse Gas Emissions under the Clean Air Act” and asked for public comment though November 28, 2008.

Aside from the massive bureaucracy that would be involved in trying to regulate greenhouse gas emissions under the Clean Air Act, the EPA primarily needs to determine whether or not greenhouse gas emissions from human activities are endangering the public health or welfare. The underlying analysis to support/deny an endangerment finding is provided in the EPA’s Technical Support Document for Endangerment Analysis for Greenhouse Emissions under the Clean Air Act (Endangerment TSD) which attempts to serve as review of the state to the science concerning the “vulnerabilities, risks and impacts” of climate change, primarily within the United States.

However, the Endangerment TSD is largely a dated document which relies heavily on the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the U.N.’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The IPCC’s AR4 was published in the spring of 2007, but to meet the deadline for inclusion in the AR4, scientific papers had to be published by late 2005/early 2006. So, in the rapidly evolving field of climate change, by grounding its TSD in the IPCC AR4 the EPA is largely relying on scientific findings that are, by late 2008, nearly 3 years out of date.

And a lot has happened in those intervening three years. (WCR)

Freeman Dyson Debunks Dire Forecasts on Global Warming and Other Tenets - Freeman Dyson gets around. Last Wednesday, for example, the 85-year-old “retired” physicist regaled a lunchtime audience at the Nassau Club with his “heretical” ideas about global warming. Just a few hours later he could be found once again sharing his thoughts on global warming, as well as on intelligent design, nuclear warfare, extraterrestrial life, and HAR-1 (a DNA component that distinguishes human beings from other animals) with a standing-room-only crowd at Labyrinth Books. (Ellen Gilbert, TownTopics)

The Absurdity of a Reliable Average Global Surface Temperature - ACCURATELY recording the temperature of a body that is not in equilibrium can be complicated. Recording the average surface temperature of the earth reliably, and with such accuracy that one can know with certainty that there has been a less than one degree Celsius change over one hundred years, probably impossible.

Dr Vincent Gray explains why, and begins at the very beginning with an explanation of “temperature” and how it is measured: (JenniferMarohasy.com)

How not to measure temperature, part 74 - Sometimes, words fail me in describing the absolute disregard of the placement of NOAA official climate monitoring sites. For example, this one in Clarinda, Iowa submitted by surfacestations volunteer Eric Gamberg: (Watts Up With That?)

More 'Gore Effect'? Nov 18, 2008: On a cold day, extremely low turnout for DC global "warming" rally

Climate Action Now DC rally: freezing, but fired up for change! | 1Sky

The rally brought together people from all ages and backgrounds. They had two things in common: they were all freezing, and they were all ready to head to the Hill and press for bold climate action!

The blog post above claims that "more than 300" were there, but I'm skeptical that even that many people bothered to show up. (Tom Nelson)

Also see ‘Gore Effect’ history here.

Why? Nike, Starbucks Calling For New US Climate Policy - LOS ANGELES - Nike Inc, Starbucks Corp and investor coalition Ceres are among the founding members of a new coalition calling for strong US climate and energy legislation in early 2009. (Reuters)

Lawyers 'sprint' to be ready on climate change - Climate change is bad for the environment, but it may be good for business. Very, very good.

"Climate change is the growth sector," says Charles Campbell, chief financial officer at Superior Credit Union in Thunder Bay. "Renewable energy has never been more economically viable with the pressures of peak oil and carbon-reduction mandates. The retooling of much of the world's infrastructure to address climate change is also a huge project we face as a civilization."

For lawyers, readying for those opportunities will be more of a sprint than a marathon, at least in the short term. "[Climate change] is a $100-billion market that sprang out of nowhere. It didn't exist five to six years ago," notes Mike Richmond, chairman of the energy law practice at McMillan LLP in Toronto.

Expect increased work in three legal areas, adds Doug Tingey, associate counsel with Davis LLP in Toronto. First is environmental law, particularly compliance. Projects law is also a boom market for those with experience in finance and structuring. Last are new opportunities for growth and business legal work. (Donalee Moulton , Financial Post)

UN climate change chief hails Obama commitments - ALGIERS, Algeria -- The recent commitments on global warming by U.S. President-elect Barack Obama mark a new beginning for world negotiations to replace the Kyoto Protocol, the head of the U.N.'s climate change body said Wednesday.

Obama "indicated that he wants to show leadership both domestically and internationally," said Yvo de Boer, executive director of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. "I feel that that's a very important signal of encouragement for all of the countries in these negotiations," he told The Associated Press.

The PIF and the EU Unite Against Climate Change - The Pacific Island Forum and the European Union join up to act against climate change

The Pacific Island Forum and the EU have endorsed a joint Declaration on climate change that outline their common concerns for global warming and their common interest for an ambitious post Kyoto international agreement. (Press Release: European Commission)

Italy, Germany to seek joint approach to climate change - TRIESTE, Italy — Germany and Italy will seek a joint approach to climate change and the environment, Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi said Tuesday after meeting with German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

The two countries agreed to form a joint commission that will work to "bring our positions closer together," Berlusconi said at a joint news conference with Merkel.

"As Germany and Italy are the two main manufacturing countries of Europe, we do not want" new EU rules on reducing greenhouse gas emissions to "have too heavy an impact on our businesses," Berlusconi said after the pair met in the northeastern Italian city of Trieste. (AFP)

UPDATE: Climate Change Rules Shouldn't Hurt Economy - Germany - TRIESTE, Italy -- Italy and Germany agree that measures to cut greenhouse gases shouldn't weigh on the economy, Germany Chancellor Angela Merkel said at a press conference Tuesday, indicating government support for tough new measures in Europe is waning. (Dow Jones)

Poles offered break on carbon emissions - Power stations in eastern Europe could receive millions of euros of free carbon emission allowances to overcome opposition to a European Union climate pact.

The French proposal, a copy of which has been obtained by the Financial Times, is intended to address Poland’s concerns about the expansion of Europe’s emissions trading system, a central pillar of the EU’s ambitious plan to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 20 per cent from 1990 levels by 2020.

Poland and other east European member states have strenuously objected to a measure in the original plan that called for electricity utilities to buy all of their emissions allowances at auction, beginning in 2013. (Financial Times)

Climate change momentum fading: Asia-Pacific survey - Climate change is fading as a priority in the Pacific Rim as the gloomy state of the global economy takes precedence, a survey of opinion leaders showed Wednesday.

The Pacific Economic Cooperation Council, a non-governmental group, released an annual survey of leaders in government, business and media ahead of a summit in Peru of 21 Asia-Pacific leaders.

Twenty-four percent of some 400 opinion leaders surveyed said the top priority for Asia-Pacific leaders should be addressing the US-bred financial crisis, far outweighing other issues.

Last year, the top priority was reviving stalled global trade negotiations, at 12 percent, but climate change came close at eight percent. Global warming did not even figure among the top priorities this year. (AFP)

India: 'We Have Accepted a Limit on our Emissions' - With its enormous population and booming industrial economy, India is set to become one of the planet's chief polluters. India's chief climate treaty negotiator, Shyam Saran, talks to SPIEGEL ONLINE his country's role in reducing greenhouse gas emissions. (Der Spiegel)

Sounds significant, doesn't it? So, what is this limit to which India so startlingly submits?

Even though there is no legal obligation on India in this respect, the Prime Minister of India made a commitment that India's per capita emissions will at no time exceed the average of the per capita emissions of developed, industrialized countries. We have thus accepted a limit on our emissions and at the same time provided an incentive to our partners in developed countries to be more ambitious. The more significant their reductions of emissions, the lower the limit we would need to accept for our own.

In other words India is allowing itself a 10-15-fold increase as a "limit". Ah, diplomacy...

Australians urged to follow NZ lead on ETS review - The Carbon Sense Coalition today called on the Queensland Government to follow the lead of New Zealand and initiate a complete review of the science and the cost-benefits of the proposals to levy a new tax on coal and petrol usage.

“All over the world, three factors are triggering a revolt against the lemming-like rush led by the Anglo-Saxons to commit carbon suicide via emissions trading schemes,” said Viv Forbes, Chairman of the Carbon Sense Coalition.

“Firstly, the science behind the scaremongering forecasts from IPCC computer models has been shown to be deficient by a growing band of independent scientists.

“Secondly, the globe itself is sending a warning as daily reports of unseasonal frosts, snow and ice make a mockery of the global warming hysteria. We certainly have climate change, but it is natural global cooling, not man-made global warming.

“Thirdly, the world financial collapse has forced alert politicians to focus on the immediate concerns of voters – real jobs, and the security of supply for food and power. (Press Release: Carbon Sense Coalition)

Let Them Eat Shrubbery - Science is often at its most newsworthy when it proves the blatantly obvious: getting drunk makes you more likely to fall over; sunbathing is a risk factor for sunburn, etc. But science that ‘proves’ something that journalists, commentators and policy bods like to think was blatantly obvious can also command more than its fair of column inches. Last year, for example, we reported on how a paper published by the Royal Society had proved once and for all that The Great Global Warming Swindle really did get it wrong about the influence of the sun on global warming, just like the Royal Society had said it had. More recently, there was the news that human activities had been attributed directly to the rise in temperatures at the Earth’s poles: (Climate Resistance)

Linear Climate Trends or Sudden Transitions of Climate - Which is More Likely? - A recent paper in Geophysical Research Letters by K. Zickfeld and colleagues (”Is the Indian summer monsoon stable against global change?” provides an example of investigating multiple climate forcings. According to their study, sulfur emissions and/or land-use changes as they affect planetary albedo, or natural variations in insolation and CO2 concentrations, could trigger abrupt transitions between different monsoon regimes. While the paper uses a simple box model of the tropical atmosphere, it is a start at investigating a set of multiple climate forcings as causing rapid transitions of climate in India. Such rapid transitions are already part of the natural system; see Rial, J., R.A. Pielke Sr., M. Beniston, M. Claussen, J. Canadell, P. Cox, H. Held, N. de Noblet-Ducoudre, R. Prinn, J. Reynolds, and J.D. Salas, 2004: Nonlinearities, feedbacks and critical thresholds within the Earth’s climate system. Climatic Change, 65, 11-38.) (Roger Pielke Sr., Climate Science)

Oh dear... Global warming data blunder: Worth the fuss? - Despite broad consensus on the existence, origins and potentially catastrophic effects of global warming, a vocal minority continues to question the motives, methods and assumptions of climate scientists sounding the alarm. So when temperature data released by NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), one of the leading monitors of climate change, showed an unusually warm October, climate change skeptics cried foul.

As it turned out, the GISS data were flawed. The relatively minor glitch was fixed and the figures updated. End of story? Of course not. Climate change skeptic Anthony Watts called the mistake a "data train wreck" in his blog. Global warming denier Christopher Booker, in a column in the U.K.'s conservative Telegraph, called the error a "surreal scientific blunder."

What Booker fails to mention—apart from the folly of relying on anecdotal evidence—is that even the corrected figures show one of the hottest Octobers on record. (This fact, and many others pertaining to Booker's article, are neatly addressed by blogger Tim Lambert.) It's also worth noting that Booker was recently dubbed the "patron saint of charlatans" by the left-leaning Guardian newspaper for his views questioning both global warming and the documented health hazards of asbestos, a known carcinogen. (John Matson, SciAm)

... Matson isn't too good at this, is he? Satellite data shows the globe had a pretty ordinary October, with most of the globe within ±0.5 °C of average and a smattering of warmer and cooler spots. Overall ranking 10 of 30, so not even in the top quartile. Why Matson clings to the absurd NCDC figure is unclear since it is ~8% higher than the GISTEMP joke and ~43% higher than HadCRUT3.

Because 'everybody says'? Cooling theorist has sunspots in his eyes - Bryan Leyland wrote an article in the Dominion Post and Stuff last week attacking global-warming theories. Ralph Chapman of Victoria University replies. (Dominion Post)

Well, if Chapman is basically going to argue authority perhaps we should counter:

In the words of Thomas H. Huxley: The improver of natural knowledge absolutely refuses to acknowledge authority, as such. For him, scepticism is the highest of duties; blind faith the one unpardonable sin.

Do not believe in anything simply because you have heard it.
Do not believe in anything simply because it is spoken and rumoured by many.
Do not believe in anything simply because it is found written in your religious books.
Do not believe in anything merely on the authority of your teachers and elders.
Do not believe in traditions because they have been handed down for many generations.
But after observation and analysis, when you find that anything agrees with reason and is conducive to the good and benefit of one and all, then accept it and live up to it. -- Gautama Buddha

Climate change opens new avenue for spread of invasive plants - Plants that range northward because of climate change may be better at defending themselves against local enemies than native plants. (University of Florida)

So, by these guys definition all North American plants north of ~37N are "invasive" since the Laurentide Ice Sheet (principal glacial cover of North America during the Pleistocene Epoch 1,600,000 to 10,000 years ago) pretty much eliminated pre-existing plant cover. Guess what? Climates change and all manner of critters exploit available niches. So what's new?

Climate Action Plans Fail to Deliver: Updated 11-17-08 (Robert Ferguson, SPPI)

Gassiest stunt against gas yet - Reuters snaps the most hypocritical protest against global warming, this one thanks to firey Greenpeace protesters in Germany. (Andrew Bolt Blog)

Really? Energy security 'must not be excuse to expand coal power' - Government must not allow construction of coal power stations without carbon capture storage, say researchers (The Guardian)

And why is that?

Moore’s Curse and the Great Energy Delusion - Big Ideas Our transition away from fossil fuels will take decades—if it happens at all.

During the early 1970s we were told by the promoters of nuclear energy that by the year 2000 America’s coal-based electricity generation plants would be relics of the past and that all electricity would come from nuclear fission. What’s more, we were told that the first generation fission reactors would by then be on their way out, replaced by super-efficient breeder reactors that would produce more fuel than they were initially charged with.

During the early 1980s some aficionados of small-scale, distributed, “soft” (today’s “green”) energies saw America of the first decade of the 21st century drawing 30 percent to 50 percent of its energy use from renewables (solar, wind, biofuels). For the past three decades we have been told how natural gas will become the most important source of modern energy: widely cited forecasts of the early 1980s had the world deriving half of its energy from natural gas by 2000. And a decade ago the promoters of fuel cell cars were telling us that such vehicles would by now be on the road in large numbers, well on their way to displacing ancient and inefficient internal combustion engines.

These are the realities of 2008: coal-fired power plants produce half of all U.S. electricity, nuclear stations 20 percent, and there is not a single commercial breeder reactor operating anywhere in the world; in 2007 the United States derives about 1.7 percent of its energy from new renewable conversions (corn-based ethanol, wind, photovoltaic solar, geothermal); natural gas supplies about 24 percent of the world’s commercial energy—less than half the share predicted in the early 1980s and still less than coal with nearly 29 percent; and there are no fuel-cell cars.

This list of contrasts could be greatly extended, but the point is made: all of these forecasts and anticipations failed miserably because their authors and promoters ignored one of the most important realities ruling the behavior of complex energy systems—the inherently slow pace of energy transitions. (Vaclav Smil, The American)

Did Hated Speculators Lower Oil Prices? - Whither the speculators? They were this summer's front-page news, the subject of congressional hearings, editorials and nightly newscasts. The claimed culprits of oil's price rise, everyone fell over themselves to be tougher on them. (J.T. Young, IBD)

A Chance In Shale - New drilling techniques may open up a 14-year supply of natural gas trapped in porous rock in the Northeast. That is, if environmentalists in New York and elsewhere don't keep it trapped in the ground. (IBD)

Yeah, green jobs will save us... Closure of solar plant casts cloud over industry - IN A body blow for Australia's solar industry, the nation's biggest solar-panel factory will close early next year, taking 200 skilled jobs with it, equal to one-eighth of the total Australian solar workforce. (Sydney Morning Herald)

UK Law's Passage Arouses Dispute Over Green Energy - LONDON - A move approved by Britain's lower house, to expand a price support plan for households making green energy to larger renewables projects, could undermine a vital existing scheme, big energy producers said. (Reuters)

Hypersafe for a mill-yun years: Nuclear planning to the year 1,002,008 - YUCCA MOUNTAIN, Nevada - Will this barren mountain rising up to 4,950 feet from the Mojave desert look roughly the same in the year 1,002,008? That’s a million years into the future.

The question may sound bizarre but its answer is key to the future of a decades-old, controversial project to store America’s nuclear waste in the belly of Yucca Mountain, on the edge of a nuclear test site and 95 miles from Las Vegas. The narrow road from there winds through a desolate landscape of sparse vegetation — creosote scrub, cactus and gnarled Joshua trees.

“This is probably the world’s most intensely studied mountain,” says Michael Voegele, one of the senior engineers on the project, standing beside the “Yucca Mucker”, a 720-ton cylinder-shaped machine that has drilled a five-mile tunnel into the mountain. “And yet, there will be even more study.”

Indeed. In September, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) revised its original safety standards for what would be the world’s first deep underground nuclear mausoleum. Those standards were meant to protect the health of people living near Yucca Mountain for 10,000 years from the time the mountain is filled with 70,000 tons of radioactive nuclear waste.

Ten thousand years is roughly twice mankind’s recorded history. But a court in Washington ruled in 2004 that protection should reach farther into the future. The new standards “will protect public health and the environment for 1 million years,” according to the EPA. “The Yucca Mountain facility will open only if it meets EPA’s standards…” (Reuters)

Null Series: B vitamins for preventing mental decline as we age - Remember that mischievous little African bee and the epidemiological study that recently claimed to show that low vitamin B₁₂ levels were associated with brain atrophy? As we uncovered, the study had actually found no tenable correlations between the B vitamin and brain size, and the Oxford authors were unable to give a biologically plausible explanation for how vitamin B₁₂ levels might facilitate brain atrophy. Even so, they had concluded that a randomized clinical trial of high dose vitamin B₁₂ supplementation was needed to see if the vitamin could help prevent cognitive impairment among elderly. (Junkfood Science)

Posole-gate - It’s already being called Posole-gate.

“The more we look to the government to protect us, the more freedoms we lose,” said one resident. This became a reality today when government health officials went after an 84-year old tradition and told the nuns at St. Francis Xavier Catholic Church in Albuquerque, New Mexico, that their church dinner of homemade posole, tamales and biscochitos was against the law. Every December 14th, after the Our Lady of Guadalupe procession, church ladies have served traditional posole and biscochitos for parishioners and the public. The Environment Health Department, however, determined the potluck was a threat to public safety and a violation of the city’s food ordinance. (Junkfood Science)

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Indoctrination alert: Arthur Goes Green in New Board Game: Arthur Saves the Planet - CHICAGO, Ill. — Cameron McCandless, U.S. Marketing Director of FRED Distribution, Inc. announced this week that the popular book and public television character, Arthur, embarks on a mission to “go green” in a new award-winning children’s board game - Arthur(TM) Saves the Planet, One Step at a Time. And, the release of this new game coincides perfectly with National Games Week - November 16 to 29. Arthur Saves the Planet aims to inspire children six years and older to take simple steps to care for the environment, in short, to go green. This environmentally-friendly board game has also won the Preferred Choice Award from Creative Child Magazine and is endorsed by PBS Kids. (eNewsChannels)

We Have Become A Nation Of Thieves - Evil acts can be given an aura of moral legitimacy by noble-sounding socialistic expressions such as spreading the wealth, income redistribution or caring for the less fortunate. Let's think about socialism.

Imagine there's an elderly widow down the street from you. She has neither the strength to mow her lawn nor enough money to hire someone to do it. Here's my question to you, and I'm almost afraid of the answer:

Would you support a government mandate that forces one of your neighbors to mow the lady's lawn each week? If he failed to follow the government orders, would you approve of some kind of punishment ranging from house arrest and fines to imprisonment? (Walter E. Williams, IBD)

Use Flower Power To Save Europe's Bees - EU Lawmaker - STRASBOURG - Honey bees, whose numbers are falling, must be given flowery "recovery zones" in Europe's farmlands to aid their survival, a leading EU lawmaker said on Wednesday.

Bees pollinate numerous crops and scientists have expressed alarm over their mysterious and rapid decline. Experts have warned that a drop in the bee population could harm agriculture.

"If we continue to neglect the global bee population, then this will have a dramatic effect on our already strained world food supplies," said Neil Parish, who chairs the European Parliament's agriculture committee.

Parish, a British conservative, said vast swathes of single crops such as wheat often made it difficult for bees to find enough nectar.

But he said farmers could help bees by planting patches of bee-friendly flowers -- including daisies, borage and lavender.

"We're talking about less than one percent of the land for bee-friendly crops -- in corners where farmers can't get to with their machinery, round trees and under hedges." (Reuters)

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