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Written by Joe Pappalardo, Popular Mechanics
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Wednesday, 06 February 2008 |
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Every day, scientists hoping to see
an increase in solar activity train their instruments at the sun as it
crosses the sky. This is no idle academic pursuit: A lull in solar
action could potentially drive the planet’s temperature down, or even
prompt a mini Ice Age.
For millennia, thermonuclear forces inside the star have followed
a regular rhythm, causing its magnetic field to peak and ebb, on
average, every 11 years. Space weathermen are watching for telltale
increases in sunspots, which would signal the start of a new cycle,
predicted to have started last March and expected to peak in 2012.
“When the sun’s active, it’s a little bit brighter,” explains Ken
Tapping, a solar researcher and project director for Canada’s National
Research Council.
So far, Tapping reports no change in the magnetic field strength,
as measured by radio telescopes. On the more positive side, last month
NASA reported a small, earth-sized sunspot with a magnetic field
pointing in the opposite direction from those in the previous cycle;
qualities that designate the spot as a signal of a new upturn in
activity. At the solar maximum, scientists expect to see between 75 and
150 such sunspots per day.
Tapping oversees the operation of a 60-year-old radio telescope
that he calls a “stethoscope for the sun.” Recent magnetic field
readings are as low as he’s ever seen, he says, and he’s worked with
the instrument for more than 25 years. If the sun remains this quiet
for another a year or two, it may indicate the star has entered a
downturn that, if history is any precedent, could trigger a planetary
cold spell that could bring massive snowfall and severe weather to the
Northern Hemisphere.
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Written by Anthony Watts, Watts Up with That
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Tuesday, 05 February 2008 |
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Of
course we already have had a heads up from all the wire reports around
the world talking about the significant winter weather events that have
occurred worldwide in the last month, but until now, there hasn’t been
a measure of how the planet was doing for the winter of 2007/2008.
Remote Sensing Systems of Santa Rosa just posted the latest MSU (Microwave Sounder Unit) data.
January posted a -.08°C near global anomaly between -70S and 82.5N
latitude (the viewshed of the satellite sounder). That makes it the
coldest month since January 2000, and the 2nd coldest January for the
planet in 15 years. Both northern and southern hemispheres posted
negative anomalies of -012°C and -.038°C respectively, happening for
the first time since January 2000.
The United States posted a -.557°C anomaly for January 2008 and a -0.196°C anomaly for December 2007.
Here is the raw anomaly data for January 2008
| Year |
Month |
-70.0/ 82.5 |
-20.0/ 20.0 |
20.0/ 82.5 |
-70.0/ -20.0 |
60.0/ 82.5 |
-70.0/ -60.0 |
CONUS |
0.0/ 82.5 |
-70.0/ 0.0 |
| 2008 |
1 |
-0.080 |
-0.188 |
-0.063 |
0.025 |
0.288 |
-0.833 |
-0.557 |
-0.120 |
-0.038 |
Which can be viewed in its entirety here (.txt data)
Here
is my plot of the raw, unedited Global anomaly data supplied by RSS per
month. Note that the anomaly trend between late 2007 and early 2008 is
quite steep and that the period leading up to 2008 is relatively flat. Source
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Written by Climate Science
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Monday, 04 February 2008 |
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Climate Science has made as one of its main conclusions that:
The needed focus for the study of climate change and variability is
on the regional and local scales. Global and zonally-averaged climate
metrics would only be important to the extent that they provide useful
information on these space scales.
The recent prolonged rare cold and snow in China provides an
excellent example to support this conclusion. As reported on China View
under the title “Experts blame snow disaster on La Nina, atmospheric circulation” [thanks to ICECAP original posting on the China snows!]
"NANCHANG, Feb. 2 (Xinhua) — The rare prolonged snowstorms and
low temperatures that have caused havoc in many parts of China are
mainly related to the La Nina phenomenon and abnormal atmospheric
circulation, Chinese meteorologists said.
The severe weather strongly resembled the aftermath of La
Nina events, which indicated that the latest development of La Nina was
a primary cause of the abnormal snow, meteorologists at the Jiangxi
Provincial Meteorological Bureau said.
La Nina is a large pool of unusually cold water in the
equatorial Pacific that develops every few years and influences global
weather. It is the climatic opposite of El Nino, which is a warming of
the Pacific.
Experts said that the latest La Nina conditions developed
last August throughout the tropical Pacific and strengthened at the
sharpest pace in 56 years. The sea-surface temperature during the past
six months was 0.5 degree Celsius lower than normal years.
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Written by worldclimatereport.com
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Monday, 04 February 2008 |
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The Arctic is melting, right? There is simply no questioning this
pillar of the greenhouse scare, and images of ice melting, polar bears
struggling, and indigenous people crying the blues are all part of any
self-respecting presentation of global warming. Imagine a study
published in a major journal showing that a location in the Arctic has
“a trend of -0.3°C over the last 1,500 years.” Of course, you would
never have learned of such a result had you not discovered World Climate Report.
The article is forthcoming in Climate Dynamics,
and the work was conducted by Håkan Grudd of Stockholm University’s
Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology, and despite
the results, the research was not funded by industry. The focus here is
the Torneträsk area in northern Sweden near 68.5°N (within the Arctic
Circle) where Scots pines have been growing for millennia. Grudd not
only sampled living trees, but he also collected subfossil samples
found as dead wood on dry ground and from submerged logs retrieved from
small mountain lakes. Many other studies have shown that the pines are
sensitive to summer temperatures, so in theory, the tree samples should
allow a very long term and relatively accurate reconstruction of past
thermal conditions.
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Written by icecap.us
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Saturday, 02 February 2008 |
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See this story
in the New York Times. Millions of Chinese faced a humanitarian crisis
on Friday as gasoline and food reserves dwindled and yet more bad
weather was forecast for a country paralyzed by record-breaking cold
and snow. More than 160 counties and cities in central China suffered
blackouts and water shortages, the Xinhua news agency said, including
Chenzhou, in Hunan Province, a city of four million that has been
without power and water for more than a week. Stricken areas of south
and central China are suffering the worst winter weather in half a
century, with at least 60 people dead in weather-related accidents.
Hunan, Guizhou and Jiangxi were all facing fresh storms, and Mr. Zhu
said the extreme weather could last another 10 days. Nearly six million
passengers have been stranded on trains or in railroad stations in the
past week. For millions of migrant workers, Lunar New Year is their
only chance to see families all year.
Icecap Note: Our friends at the Metsul in Brazil remarked that this
event is the “Chinese Katrina” in the sense of a social convulsion
after a dramatic weather event. They also noted the Chinese news agency
even published a webpage dedicated specially to this event.
We keep reading in these stories, that the cold or snow is the worst in
30 to 50 years. This may be because 30 to 50 years ago we were
in the cold phase of the PDO and much of the time the warm phase of the
AMO, which is currently the case. Recall we recently did a correlation of these factors
at least in the US data (Iwe had little faith in any of the global data
bases except the satellite and it only goes back to 1979). By the way
the analysis was updated after commenters suggested a multiple
regression approach. That actually led to even stronger correlation
between the oceans and US temperatures (r-squared of 0.85). Source
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Written by Global Warming Politics
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Friday, 01 February 2008 |
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In all the political brouhaha over ‘global warming’, and despite the 35 per cent rise in the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide over pre-industrial conditions [from 1832 ice-core records of c. 284 ppmv to c. 384 ppmv in November, 2007), we too often forget that atmospheric CO2 levels remain at their lowest for 500 million years.
The graph, left, [a larger version (165 JPEG file) is available here ] has been taken from ‘Atmospheric carbon dioxide levels for the last 500 million years ’ by Daniel H. Rothman (Massachusetts Institute of Technology), published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 99 (7), April 2, 2002, pp. 4167-4171. The graph shows the fluctuations in the partial pressure of atmospheric CO2 (pCO2) over the last 500 My (million years), employing certain methodological improvements introduced by Rothman in his paper. The grey bars at the top of the graph represent cooler periods in the Earth’s history; the white spaces between are warmer periods. The time scale embraces minus 500 million years from the present, and includes the following geological periods: Ordovician, Silurian, Devonian, Carboniferous, Permian, Triassic, Jurassic, Cretaceous, and Tertiary. The grey area over the main curve illustrates the probable lower and upper limits employing wider parameters.
The ‘Abstract’ summarizes this fascinating study as follows:
“The last 500 million years of the strontium-isotope record are shown to correlate significantly with the concurrent record of isotopic fractionation between inorganic and organic carbon after the effects of recycled sediment are removed from the strontium signal. The correlation is shown to result from the common dependence of both signals on weathering and magmatic processes. Because the long-term evolution of carbon dioxide levels depends similarly on weathering and magmatism, the relative fluctuations of CO2 levels are inferred from the shared fluctuations of the isotopic records. The resulting CO2 signal exhibits no systematic correspondence with the geologic record of climatic variations at tectonic time scales.”
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Written by Michael Kahn, Reuters
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Thursday, 31 January 2008 |
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British researchers say they have shown that a half-degree Celsius temperature rise in the Atlantic ocean can fuel a 40 percent increase in hurricanes. (See this article on how NOAA determined there would be LESS hurricanes)
The finding by the team from University College London is a contentious one in the debate over how climate change affects weather and, especially, storms.
"A 0.5 degree C increase in sea surface temperature is associated with a 40 percent increase in hurricane frequency and activity," the British researchers wrote in their report, published in the journal Nature on Wednesday.
The team showed ocean warming is directly linked to the frequency, strength and duration of hurricanes, said Adam Lea, the research scientist who co-led the study.
The study, which did not look at whether greenhouse gases linked to global warming played a role in increasing water temperature, will help scientists better predict how warmer oceans might affect hurricanes, he added in a telephone interview.
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