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Scientists disagree over lack of sunspots
Written by Mark Lawson, AFR   
Wednesday, 20 August 2008

The current cycle of the sun is taking a long time to start, triggering different explanations, writes Mark Lawson.

Despite being dismissed by a number of scientists as of little consequence to the present discussion of climate change, the issue of the sun's activity - or apparent lack of it - has been the subject of considerable debate in recent months. Scientists who concern themselves with the fledgling subject of space weather (changes in the sun's emissions) have been wondering where all the sunspots have gone, when they might come back and what effect this will have on climate.

The sun has a well-recognised, 11-year cycle marked by spots, or cool dark regions with strong magnetic fields, that appear on its surface. At the peak of the cycle, when the sun may be giving off lots of flares and solar storms that affect satellites, there are lots of spots. At the low part of the cycle there are few to no spots and the sun is calm.

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Brrr! Farmers' Almanac says cold winter ahead
Written by Associated Press   
Wednesday, 20 August 2008

Households worried about the high cost of keeping warm this winter will draw little comfort from the Farmers' Almanac, which predicts below-average temperatures for most of the U.S.

"Numb's the word," says the 192-year-old publication, which claims an accuracy rate of 80 to 85 percent for its forecasts that are prepared two years in advance.

The almanac's 2009 edition, which goes on sale Tuesday, says at least two-thirds of the country can expect colder than average temperatures, with only the Far West and Southeast in line for near-normal readings.

"This is going to be catastrophic for millions of people," said almanac editor Peter Geiger, noting that the frigid forecast combined with high prices for heating fuel is sure to compound problems households will face in keeping warm.

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Hadley Climate Center HadAT2 Data shows global cooling in the last year
Written by Anthony Watts, Watts Up with That   
Friday, 15 August 2008
Overall long term trend remains positive in lower troposphere.

Most often on this forum we have looked at either surface temperature data from surface observations or lower tropospheric temperature data derived from satellite sounders. Today I’d like to point out a short scale trend in global radiosonde data showing cooling in the last year, as well as examine the record back to 1958.

The HadAT2 dataset from the Hadley Climate Center takes in balloon radiosonde measurements taken twice daily from hundreds of points around the globe and compiles it. Here is how they describe it:

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Yet another sceptical scientist
Written by Andrew Bolt, Herald Sun   
Wednesday, 13 August 2008

Add another warming sceptic to the list - now so long that surely even the ABC must doubt the “consensus”. This time it’s Professor Bill Collins of James Cook University’s School of Earth and Environmental Sciences:

[The global warming debate is] not about mainstream (read official) scientists versus sceptics, enthusiasts or bloggers. Many of these people are good scientists. The debate is about how and why climate change is happening…

Ice ages are the most obvious evidence for climate change, and we are coming out of the medieval Little Ice Age now. As global temperatures progressively warm, many consider that this relates to carbon emissions dating from the 1850s, but the increase began approximately 300 years ago…

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Spotless days: 400 and counting
Written by Anthony Watts, Watts Up with That   
Wednesday, 13 August 2008


The sun on 08/12/2008 just before midnight UTC - spotless

As many of you know, the sun has been very quiet, especially in the last month. In a NASA news release article titled What’s Wrong with the Sun? (Nothing) solar physicist David Hathaway goes on record as saying:

“It does seem like it’s taking a long time,” allows Hathaway, “but I think we’re just forgetting how long a solar minimum can last.”

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Maine’s tourism industry suffering due to cooler, wetter, weather
Written by Anthony Watts, Watts Up with That   
Tuesday, 12 August 2008
NOTE: There seems to be an abundance of anecdotal weather evidence that the northern latitudes in North America have had a cooler summer than usual. Of course there are places that have bucked that trend also. Still it is interesting to note, just as the Washington Post did in July when temperatures seemed a bit warm.

From Amy Sinclair, NECN

August is usually the busiest month of the year for Maine’s tourism industry. With August off to a soggy start, there are a lot of long faces in Vacationland. Fleece and sweatshirts have replaced bikinis at Old Orchard Beach and no one’s buying ice cream.

Instead, it’s rained 10 of the last 11 days and it’s unseasonably cool. Who’s counting? Families on vacation, that’s who. “A little depressing so far ha. It would have been nice to go to Aquaboggan today.” Instead Dad had to break the bad news to Melanie, Alex and Nathan–the waterpark was closed due to weather. Staying closed on a lucrative 10-dollar Monday means 20 to 30 thousand dollars down the tubes..And in Aquaboggan’s short nine week season, they can’t make that money back.

While bad weather tends to scare off last minute travelers, vacationers who’ve booked ahead usually forge ahead. They string up the blue tarp at the campground and try to make the best of it.

Source

 
Three Decades of Modeling Climate Sensitivity to CO2
Written by Sherwood, Keith and Craig Idso, CO2 Science   
Tuesday, 12 August 2008
We still can't predict future climate responses at low and high latitudes, which constrains our ability to forecast changes in atmospheric dynamics and regional climate. Thus states the subtitle of the Bernard Haurwitz Memorial Lecture presented by NASA Senior Scientist David Rind of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies at the 16th Conference on Atmospheric and Oceanic Fluid Dynamics, which was held on 25-29 June 2007 in Santa Fe, New Mexico (USA) and published in the June 2008 issue of the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (Rind, 2008).

Rind begins his review and analysis of this important subject by noting that Charney et al. (1979) concluded that global temperature sensitivity to a doubling of the atmosphere's CO2 concentration was "between 1.5° and 4.5°C," while noting that since that time "we have not moved very far from that range." In addition, he reports that uncertainty in our assessment of high- and low-latitude climate sensitivity "is also still as great as ever, with a factor of 2 at both high and low latitudes."

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