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Written by Tom Quirk, via Jennifer Marohasy Blog
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Wednesday, 11 June 2008 |
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One of the most vexing things about climate change is the endless
debate about temperatures. Did they rise, did they fall or were they
pushed? At times it seems like a Monty Python sketch following either
the Dead Parrot or the 5 or 10 Minute Argument.
However it is possible to see some of the issues by looking at the
correlation of the five temperature series that are advanced by the
uppers or the downers.
The five groups are:
1. GISS, The Goddard Institute, home of James Hansen,
2. NCDC, The National Climate Data Center, a part of NOAA (as is GISS),
the National Oceanographic and Atmosphere Administration.
3. BMO/UEA, The British Meteorological Office and the University of East Anglia.
4. UAH, The University of Alabama, Huntsville, home of Roy Spencer with his colleagues including John Christy of NASA and
5. RSS, Remote Sensing Systems in Santa Rosa, California, a company supported by NASA for the analysis of satellite data.
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Written by innovations report
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Monday, 09 June 2008 |
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New research that integrates seismic recordings with Global Positioning
System (GPS) measurements indicates that a 7,000-square-mile region of
the Whillians Ice Stream in West Antarctica moves more than two feet
twice every day in an earthquake-like pattern equivalent to a Magnitude
7 temblor.
The findings were published in this week's edition of the journal
Nature by a group of scientists that includes investigators from
Washington University in St. Louis, Penn State University and the
University of Newcastle in Great Britain. The National Science
Foundation (NSF) funded the U.S. researchers.
Seismologists use
the magnitude scale to describe the seismic energy released by an
earthquake. An earthquake measured at between 7.0 and 7.9 on the scale
is considered "major," and can cause serious damage over large areas in
populated regions of the world. Not including the events described in
the new findings, there are an estimated 20 such quakes worldwide each
year.
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Written by Drew Thornley, from Planet Gore
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Friday, 30 May 2008 |
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Yesterday,
I had the pleasure of speaking on global warming and CO2 regulation to
a group of eighth graders — a change of pace from my usual speaking
engagements. Prior to my visit, the class wrote papers on whether
man-made global warming is occurring. Half the class was assigned the
pro-MMGW argument and half the con. Afterward, the class debated the
issue.
This balanced look at climate change, along with a
rational debate, is what is missing in today’s global warming hysteria.
Where’s the debate? Where is the acknowledgement of the anti-alarmists’
arguments? Why does research funding flow overwhelmingly to those
connecting you-name-it to anthropogenic global warming?
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Written by Giovanni Leoncini, Climate Science
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Friday, 23 May 2008 |
Giovanni Leoncini is finishing his Ph.D. with Dr. Pielke and is
working at the Meteorological Department of the University of Reading
on convective ensembles. He can be contacted at
g(dot)leoncini(at)reading(dot)ac(dot)uk [Thanks to Timo Hämeranta for
alerting us to this paper].
Giovanni Leoncini’s Guest Weblog
As a member of the mesoscale NWP community, climate modeling papers
and seminars often seem to have a different standard when it comes to
verification. Whilst it is routine in the NWP community (see the last
issue of Meteorological Applications on verification: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/journal/113388504/home), I don’t perceive a similar effort in the climate modeling community. In the introduction of their paper “Performance metrics for climate models”
(2008, J. Geophys. Res.) Glecker et al. mention a few reasons for this
discrepancy.
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Written by Dr. Jennifer Marohasy's blog
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Friday, 23 May 2008 |
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Steve McIntyre's recent Ohio State University presentation is now available online.
This is an excellent summary of the 'Hockey Stick' debate and the
climate debate in general, which extends to 45 pages (including
references).
The presentation concludes:
So where does that leave us?
In my opinion, there are serious and probably fatal problems with
the main proxies used as supposed evidence against a warm MWP – the
Graybill strip bark chronologies, Briffa’s adjustment to the Tornetrask
series, the inconsistency between Briffa’s Yamal substitution and the
updated Polar Urals series and so on. For every proxy that supposedly
shows a MWP cooler than the present, there seems to be one that is just
as good or better evidencing the opposite. For the California and Urals
proxies so fundamental to the Hockey Stick, the ecological evidence is
further evidence against the Graybill and Briffa chronologies being
interpretable as temperature proxies.
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Written by worldclimatereport.com
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Thursday, 22 May 2008 |
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Sometimes we wonder if authors of papers are not outright campaigning for coverage in World Climate Report.
Chose a title like “Ocean surface warming: The North Atlantic remains
within the envelope of previous recorded conditions” and you will be
guaranteed coverage by our skeptical scientists!
The latest article, with the title above, appeared recently in Deep-Sea Research which
if you don’t know is published by Elsevier (one of the largest
publishers of academic journals in the world). The research of interest
here was conducted by a team of oceanographers from the United
Kingdom’s Swansea University, and Australia’s University of Darwin, the
University of Queensland, and CSIRO. Victoria Hobson and her three
associates begin the article noting “There is increasing evidence that
warming global temperatures will have profound effects on the Earth’s
ecosystems, with the global mean air surface temperature rising by
around 0.6°C during the 20th century, with 11 of the last 12 years
(1995–2006) ranking amongst the 12 warmest years in the instrumental
record of global surface temperature since 1850.” They could win an
award from Al Gore with that mouthful! Turning attention to the ocean,
they write “Oceans may play a crucial role in regulating the climate,
and since the 1950s the heat content of the world’s oceans has
increased by ~2 x 10^23 J, equivalent to a mean volume warming of
0.06°C. While this increase is an order of magnitude less than that
observed for terrestrial systems it may be even more important as water
heats at a much slower rate than air because of its heat capacity.”
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Written by Roger Pielke, Jr., Prometheus
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Wednesday, 21 May 2008 |
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Readers following recent threads know that I've been looking for
instances where scientists make claims that some observations are
"inconsistent with" the results from climate models. The reason for
such a search is that it is all too easy for modelers to claim that
anything and everything under the sun is "consistent with" their
predictions, sometimes to avoid the perception of a loss of credibility in the political battle over climate change.
I am happy to report that claims of "inconsistent with" do exist. Here is an example from a paper just out by Knutson et al. in Nature Geoscience:
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