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Written by Roger Pielke, Jr., Prometheus
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Friday, 05 September 2008 |
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The Center for European Policy Studies (CEPS) has released a report looking at various cost estimates associated with an EU response to climate change, concluding
“the EU may be required to contribute at least €60
billion annually to global climate change mitigation and adaptation
efforts.”
The CEPS study relies on cost estimates from the IPCC, Stern, UNDP, World Bank, and Oxfam (on adaptation). As we have argued here previously, all such studies of the costs of mitigation are highly dependent upon assumptions of future emissions:
All assessments of the costs of stabilizing
concentrations of carbon dioxide start with a baseline trajectory of
future emissions. The costs of mitigation are calculated with respect
to reductions from this baseline. In the Pielke, Wigley, and Green
commentary in Nature (PDF)
we argued that such baselines typically assume very large, spontaneous
decreases in energy intensity (energy per unit GDP). The effect of
these assumptions is to decrease the trajectory of the baseline, making
the challenge of mitigation much smaller than it would be with
assumptions of smaller decreases in energy intensity (and a higher
baseline trajectory). Obviously, the smaller the gap between the
baseline scenario and the mitigation scenario, the smaller the
projected costs of mitigation.
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Written by Roger Pielke, Jr., Prometheus
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Friday, 05 September 2008 |
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Earlier this week I claimed that scientists should take some
responsibility for media misinterpretations of their work. Here is an
example where scientists are wrongly blaming the media.
Today Science magazine published a paper on sea level rise
by Tad Pfeffer (of the University of Colorado) and colleagues. the
paper claims to have ruled out a sea level rise of more than 2 meters
by 2100. The guys over at Real Climate have taken issue with the
suggestion that 2 meters of sea level rise represents a step back from
claims of higher potential increases. They write (emphasis added):
. . .we’ve just seen the initial media coverage where
this result is being spun as a downgrading of predictions! (exemplified
by this Reuters piece, drawing mainly from the U. Colorado press release). This is completely backwards. We stress that no-one (and we mean no-one) has published an informed estimate of more than 2 meters of sea level rise by 2100. Tellingly, the statement in the paper that suggests otherwise has no reference.
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Written by Phillip Stott, Global Warming Politics
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Friday, 05 September 2008 |
“So
the great edifice of modern physics goes up, and the majority of the
cleverest people in the western world have about as much insight into
it as their Neolithic ancestors would have had.” (C. P. Snow, 1959)
On May 7, 1959, the English physicist and novelist, C. P. Snow, Baron Snow (1905 - 1980), presented the Rede Lecture in the Senate House of Cambridge University. His talk was entitled ‘The Two Cultures’, and it was based on an article he had written previously for the New Statesman
magazine (October 6, 1956). In this now famous lecture, Snow lamented
the wide gulf that he perceived to exist between scientists and
“literary intellectuals”, a theme which he also explored in his series
of novels collectively known as Strangers and Brothers.
His powerful lecture was subsequently published as The Two Cultures and the Scientific Revolution, and it engendered a furious debate.
Snow was scathing about the arrogance of the literary elite:
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Written by Anthony Watts, Watts Up with That
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Friday, 05 September 2008 |
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CNN had the following AP article on their website today. NOAA says that shorter-term pollutants from Asia may raise U.S. heartland temperatures by three degrees in about 50 years.
WASHINGTON
(AP) — Smog, soot and other particles like the kind often seen hanging
over Beijing add to global warming and may raise summer temperatures in
the American heartland by three degrees in about 50 years, says a new
federal science report released Thursday.
These
overlooked, shorter-term pollutants — mostly from burning wood and
kerosene and from driving trucks and cars — cause more localized
warming than once thought, the authors of the report say.
They contend there should be a greater effort to attack this type of pollution for faster results.
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Written by Ed Ring, EcoWorld
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Friday, 05 September 2008 |
At the risk, yet again, at
incurring the wrath of the true believers, it is time to continue the
debate regarding the cause of climate trends, and indeed, the direction
of the trends themselves. But conducting a debate on this most
sensitive issue invites more than civil debate. The issue of climate
change has been succesfully framed as a moral issue, and debate is no
longer politically correct. To persist in debating this issue, despite
mounting evidence - both scientific and economic - that debate is
vital, is to risk being marginalized and demonized.
Our favorite climate website is operated by Dr. Roger Pielke, Sr., www.climatesci.org,
a climatologist at the University of Colorado. We highly recommend
anyone who wants to see just how little we still know about climate to
visit this website regularly. Pielke asserts climate change is real,
but mostly regional in nature, and anthropogenic influences such
as aerosol emissions and changes in land use, if anything, are more
significant than CO2 emissions.
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Written by The Daily Bayonet
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Friday, 05 September 2008 |
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CCF Note: There's an old expression that says you can hope in one hand and shit in the other, then see what fills up faster. Global warm-mongers hope the planet goes to hell with Gore laying down the bricks of good intentions, but science always seems to defeat their tired purposes. Our guide at The Daily Bayonet takes us down this road, showing the pitfalls and pratfalls of the environmental whackos. Enjoy.
*****
It's been an exciting week again, with the US political sphere
dominated by the Republican National Convention while Canadians in turn
will soon be off to the polls.
Global warming is a topic that
will raise it's ugly hoax-y head during the campaigns both north and
south of the border, so here is this your weekly ration of denier ammo
to take and use on the AGW believers in your life. Have fun, say hi
from me.
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Written by Tom Richard, Climate Change Fraud
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Friday, 05 September 2008 |
I'm not saying that today is an example of global warming, but it's pretty hot for September.
—Barack Obama, while visiting factory workers in Pennsylvania, implying a warm day in early September may be a sign of global warming. Summer officially ends Sept. 22.
Heard or read a quote you'd like to submit? Send it to CCF with a link for proper attribution and it will be considered.
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Written by JAMES P. LUCIER JR., WSJ
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Friday, 05 September 2008 |
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Oil companies in Alaska are paying more money in taxes
than ever before. The state's oil and gas tax revenues for its
just-ended fiscal 2007 topped $10 billion. That's twice as much as
fiscal 2006 and four times more than 2004.
Some supporters of Barack Obama see that money coming
in and say that John McCain's running mate, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin,
must have done what Sen. Obama wants to do -- sock those companies with
a big fat windfall profit tax. This is a deeply misleading reading of
her 2007 tax reform.
A few years ago, Alaska had a big problem. Despite
high oil prices, the state's fiscal future was in peril because the
state relies on only three aging oilfields for 80% of its oil and gas
tax revenue.
In 2006, then Gov. Frank Murkowski, a Republican,
proposed changing the state's tax on oil from a gross-revenue to a
net-revenue basis. Instead of creaming 10% off the top -- which was how
the mature oil fields were taxed -- Mr. Murkowski pushed to tax oil
companies on their profits only, at a rate of 22.5%. The change in tax
regime was meant to encourage investment in and development of new
fields.
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Written by Jeffrey Ball, WSJ Blogs
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Friday, 05 September 2008 |
The Journal’s Bob Davis reports:
In July, the Guardian newspaper breathlessly reported that a leaked
copy of a World Bank report blamed biofuels for 75% of the steep
increase in food prices. What made the report even juicier was that the
report was supposedly “suppressed” by the World Bank, headed by former
Bush administration Deputy Secretary of State Robert Zoellick. The
blogosphere went to town on the story.
A little reporting showed there wasn’t a lot of there, there, as
Gertrude Stein might have remarked. I spoke to the report’s author,
Donald Mitchell, who said the April report was a draft and hadn’t been
released because it wasn’t ready for publication. Nobody at the World
Bank had pressured him, he said. The World Bank put out a release
quoting Mr. Zoellick saying the Mitchell estimate of the effect of
biofuels on food prices was at the “far end. You see other people talk
about ranges of 20 percent, 25 percent.”
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Written by BBC News
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Friday, 05 September 2008 |
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The Environment Minister Sammy Wilson has angered
green campaigners by describing their view on climate change as a
"hysterical psuedo-religion".
In an article in the News Letter, Mr Wilson said he believed it occurred naturally and was not man-made.
"Resources should be used to adapt to the consequences of
climate change, rather than King Canute-style vainly trying to stop
it," said the minister.
Peter Doran of the Green Party said it was a "deeply irresponsible message."
Mr Wilson said he refused to "blindly accept" the need to make significant changes to the economy to stop climate change.
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Written by Tom Richard, Climate Change Fraud
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Thursday, 04 September 2008 |
This is a man [Obama] who has authored two memoirs but not a single piece of legislation.
—Governor Sarah Palin, during her speech at the RNC, refuting claims started by Obama's camp that she doesn't have enough experience to become vice president. According to NBC's Tom Brokaw, "She could not have been more winning or engaging."
Heard or read a quote you'd like to submit? Send it to CCF with a link for proper attribution and it will be considered.
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