Al Gore's Oscar-winning environmental documentary exaggerated the likely effects of global warming on sea levels, a new study shows.

The film, An Inconvenient Truth, suggested that the sea would rise up to 20ft "in the near future" as the ice in Greenland or Western Antarctica melts.

Other documentaries have picture Britain deluged with water, showing the House of Commons submerged.

However, while some mainstream predictions project sea levels 2 to 4 meters higher by 2100, a new study published today in Science concludes that a rise in sea level between 0.8 and 2 meters is much more likely.

While scientists agree that sea levels rose by six inches over the course of the 20th century, estimates of future rises remain hazy, mostly because there are many uncertainties, from the lack of data on what ice sheets did in the past to predict how they will react to warming, insufficient long-term satellite data to unpick the effects of natural climate change from that caused by man and a spottiness in the degree to which places such as Antarctica have warmed. 

[H/T to Marc]  Climate is always changing, and always will.  There are seasons.  There are day-night (diurnal) cycles.  At any one location, heat energy from the sun varies during the day.   Energy from the sun is affected by local conditions and clouds.   Heat absorption depends on whether it impacts water or land … and even then, the type of land (desert, forest, snow covered land), or the layout of the land (continental masses, or islands surrounded by seas).  In some parts of the world temperatures are climbing on average, and in some areas they are dropping.  Warming is not occurring everywhere at once and hence ‘global warming’ is a misnomer.

So what are the key players in ‘Climate Change’?  The major driver is the sun.  Warming depends on the sun.  Cooling is due to the lack of sun’s energy.  Radiant energy enters the earth’s atmosphere.  Air (on a dry basis) consists mainly of nitrogen 78.08% and oxygen 20.94%.  Of the 0.98% remaining, 95% of that (ie 0.934%), or almost all is the inert gas argon.  Carbon dioxide CO2 is a trace.  It is less than 400ppm (parts per million) or 0.04% of all the atmosphere (on a dry basis).  Surprisingly, less than a fifth of that is man-made CO2 (0.008% of the total), and that is only since the beginning of the industrial era and the rapid increase in world population.

Global warming findings to be published in Science

A new University of Colorado study debunks the scientific speculation that global warming will cause seas to rise by 20 feet or more by the end of century.

In fact, the study says, global sea rise exceeding 6 feet looks to be a physical impossibility.

Tad Pfeffer, a fellow of CU’s Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, and his colleagues made calculations using conservative, medium and extreme glaciological assumptions for sea rise expected from Greenland, Antarctica and the world’s smaller glaciers and ice caps. The team concluded the most plausible scenario, when factoring in thermal expansion due to warming waters, will lead to a total sea level rise of roughly 3 to 6 feet by 2100.

Pfeffer said the research calling for the more extreme 20 to 30 feet of sea rise by the end of the century is not backed up by solid glaciological evidence. Still, the team’s most likely estimate of seas rising roughly 3 to 6 feet by 2100 would be potentially devastating to huge areas of the world in low-lying coastal areas, he said.

“The gist of the study is that very simple, physical considerations show that some of the very large predictions of sea level rise are unlikely, because there is simply no way to move the ice or the water into the ocean that fast,” Pfeffer said.

Global warming findings to be published in Science

A new University of Colorado study debunks the scientific speculation that global warming will cause seas to rise by 20 feet or more by the end of century.

In fact, the study says, global sea rise exceeding 6 feet looks to be a physical impossibility.

Tad Pfeffer, a fellow of CU’s Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, and his colleagues made calculations using conservative, medium and extreme glaciological assumptions for sea rise expected from Greenland, Antarctica and the world’s smaller glaciers and ice caps. The team concluded the most plausible scenario, when factoring in thermal expansion due to warming waters, will lead to a total sea level rise of roughly 3 to 6 feet by 2100.

Pfeffer said the research calling for the more extreme 20 to 30 feet of sea rise by the end of the century is not backed up by solid glaciological evidence. Still, the team’s most likely estimate of seas rising roughly 3 to 6 feet by 2100 would be potentially devastating to huge areas of the world in low-lying coastal areas, he said.

“The gist of the study is that very simple, physical considerations show that some of the very large predictions of sea level rise are unlikely, because there is simply no way to move the ice or the water into the ocean that fast,” Pfeffer said.

Lewis Gordon Pugh is a British global warming believer who decided to kayak to the North Pole to 'expose just how quickly the ice cap is melting'.

He's currently stuck.  In the ice. 

Creek, meet paddle.

As children across the country return to school, the National Post takes a look at the curriculum issues that are flashpoints in their respective regions and examines how the most controversial subjects are taught. Today, teaching environmentalism in Alberta.

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CALGARY -Six months ago, residents of the cattle country south of Calgary invited a climate scientist to town to speak to 140 students from J. T. Foster High School in Nanton and bused in from nearby Claresholm. The guest was Tim Ball, a prominent Canadian skeptic of the theory of man-made climate change and perennial bugaboo of the green lobby.

The school had been showing An Inconvenient Truth, the contentious Al Gore movie about global warming, in class, much to the consternation of a number of locals.

Having watched Sarah Palin’s speech tonight during the broadcast of the Republican National Convention, she certainly seems like a go-getter and a bulldog.  From budget reform in Alaska to gas tax revenue refunds for taxpayers, it seems a nod for Palin is a good choice for America.  What struck me most during her nearly 45-minute speech, however, was a quick sentence or two that jabbed at leaders like Al Gore and Nancy Pelosi. 

Palin said that she wants to drill in Alaska, but she wants to use all the resources available to us - wind, solar, geothermal, clean coal and - cover your ears Democrats - nuclear.  Palin understands that wind and solar energy won’t get the job done for America right now.  She understands the inefficiencies and immaturity of these products, and suggests a balance of many different types of alternate fuels, in addition to the standard fare of oil, to power our country for years to come.

Over in Media Blog, I have a post on how the Obama campaign is "fact checking" Sarah Palin's speech and is using a veto of a wind farm on Fire Island in Alaska against her.  Here's what the Obama campaign sent to Macleans:

2007: Palin Vetoed $20 Million Toward A Fire Island Wind Farm Project. “[Sen. Hollis] French and [Anchorage Mayor Mark] Begich both lamented the [Palin] veto of $20 million toward a Fire Island wind farm project and connecting transmission lines. That money was part of Railbelt Energy Fund cash that Palin said she doesn’t want to spend until a study on energy needs is finished.” [Anchorage Daily News (Alaska), 7/30/07]

For the record, the Anchorage Daily News supported the veto in an editorial on April 28 of this year and, more importantly, the wind farm was funded to the tune of $25 million in this year's budget.  This is the same budget that the Washington Post and others targeted yesterday for Palin's cutting of expansion funding for a teen pregnancy center.

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