Such campaigns are highly effective. Environmental activist Eric de Place observes that using these types of animals as "poster children" for broader conservation has worked with grizzly bears, wolves, and sea otters.[3] And the money follows the glamour. Studies have shown that our spending preferences skew to the charismatic species: as economist Robert Stavins points out, the species we protect are generally "warm and cuddly."[4]

The latest animal to become an environmental pet project is Ursus maritimus, the Latin name given to the polar bear. In the age of Knut--the polar bear cub orphaned by its mother and raised by humans in a German zoo--media coverage of polar bears has increased dramatically. And, of course, Al Gore featured the plight of the polar bear in his movie An Inconvenient Truth.

Polar bears are cute as cubs and majestic as adults. There are few animals with a higher "awwwwww" factor than a baby polar bear, and pictures of adult polar bears standing on icebergs in the far extremes of the Arctic cause an instinctual upwelling of respect for the powerful animals capable of surviving in an environment that humans can tread only with great preparation, and still at great risk. Virtually everyone wishes to ensure that polar bears are protected from excesses of human action that, as we have seen in the past, can indeed drive animal populations to extinction.

Environmental groups, claiming that man-made global warming threatens the polar bears' survival, have called for an endangered species listing that would have far-reaching consequences. Not only would such a listing place the Arctic region off limits for mineral exploration, but it would also open up still another line of attack for environmentalists trying to force emissions of greenhouse gases downward at all costs. Should the polar bear be listed as a threatened species, lawsuits to force companies and governments to reduce activities deemed harmful to the polar bear (emitting greenhouse gases) will be quick in coming.

Virtually every major environmental group trumpets the polar bears' peril. The Center for Biological Diversity tells us:

Polar bears are at risk of extinction because global warming is causing catastrophic environmental change in the Arctic, including the rapid melting of sea ice. Because the bears are deeply dependent on the sea ice for their survival, they stand to become the first mammals in the world to lose 100 percent of their habitat to global warming.[5]

The National Wildlife Federation, which sells cute little plush polar bears, warns us that "[p]olar bears are literally drowning from global warming, unable to swim the increasingly longer distances between land and receding sea ice."[6] The Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC) cautions:

Polar bears are completely dependent on Arctic sea ice to survive, but 80 percent of that ice could be gone in 20 years and all of it by 2040. Polar bears are already suffering the effects: birth rates are falling, fewer cubs are surviving, and more bears are drowning.[7]

The World Wildlife Fund warns that "[i]f current climate trends continue unabated, polar bears could become extinct by the end of this century."[8] And Greenpeace tells us:

Global warming is causing the Arctic ice pack to thin and melt at an unprecedented rate, and as it does, the polar bear is being pushed toward the brink of extinction. Polar bears live only in the Arctic, and they depend entirely on the pack ice--the frozen surface of the Arctic Ocean--as a platform to breed, raise their young, hunt and travel. Scientists are predicting an ice-free Arctic Ocean in summer by as early as 2050, which could quite possibly spell doom for this magnificent creature.[9]

All of these environmental groups favor strong regulatory agendas to reduce greenhouse gases, and all have consistently opposed the use of Arctic regions for resource production. So it was perhaps inevitable that several environmental groups (the Center for Biological Diversity, Greenpeace, and NRDC) would petition the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to list the polar bear as a threatened species under the Endangered Species Act.[10] As of this writing, the Bush administration has not rendered a verdict on whether polar bears are to be placed on the endangered species list, but it seems likely that they will be.[11] The legal deadline for doing so was January 9, 2007, a date that the administration missed, but it is claiming that the delay was procedural and not caused by a dispute about endangerment.[12] Now a federal judge has given the administration a deadline of May 15, 2008, to make a final listing determination.

Listing the polar bear as a threatened species would have significant public policy consequences. It would set a new precedent, representing the first linkage of species endangerment with global warming. Such a listing would basically wall off the entire Arctic region to exploration, resource extraction, and development--at least by U.S. companies--and a threatened species listing would give environmental groups the ability to sue future U.S. governments to force them to reverse climate change by whatever means necessary.

There is little doubt that such lawsuits would be filed quickly. According to the NRDC:

Listing the polar bear guarantees federal agencies will be obligated to ensure that any action they authorize, fund, or carry out will not jeopardize the polar bears' continued existence or adversely modify their critical habitat, and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service will be required to prepare a recovery plan for the polar bear, specifying measures necessary for its protection.[13]

As Carl Sagan observed, "Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence." This should be especially true when the stakes are significant and are likely to impose considerable costs or limitations on economic development. Walling off the Arctic and enabling environmental groups to sue greenhouse gas emitters in the name of polar bear protection would certainly impose high costs on future generations for whom environmentalists propose to preserve the polar bear.

So we must ask: is there "extraordinary evidence" that polar bears are threatened by man-made global warming sufficient to justify the remarkable claim of setting aside Arctic development and regulating the energy economy of the world for the sake of the animal? Truly understanding the state of the polar bear, and the best policy options for protecting this magnificent animal, requires answering three questions. First, what do we know about the health of polar bear populations? Second, what do we know about future threats to polar bears? And third, what is the best policy for protecting them?  Read rest...

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