| on Jan 4, 2008, 02:22 PM E.S.T.
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It is just amazing to me that the press has granted statements like the one below the imprimatur of being scientific while labeling folks like me "anti-science" for calling them out:
Previously
it was assumed that gradual increases in carbon dioxide (CO2) and other
heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere would produce gradual increases
in global temperatures. But now scientists predict that an increase of
as little as 2˚C above pre-industrial levels could trigger
environmental effects that would make further warming—as much as
8˚C—inevitable.
Worse still, a 2˚C increase is highly likely if greenhouse gas
concentrations reach 450 parts per million (ppm). They presently stand
at 430ppm and are increasing by 2-2.5 ppm per year.
Gee, where do I start? Well, first, the author can't even get the simplest facts correct. World CO2 concentrations hover in the 380's
(the amount varies seasonally) and is not anywhere near 430. Second, I
have demonstrated any number of times that our history over the past
120 years would lead us to expect at most a 1 degree rise over pre-industrial levels at 560,
and thus a 2 degree rise by 450 is not "highly likely." Third, just
look at the author's numbers at face value. Catastrophists believe
temperatures have risen (reason disputed) about 0.6-0.7 degrees in the
last century or so. If we are really at 430 ppm, then that means the
first 150ppm rise (preindustrial CO2 was bout 280ppm) caused at most
0.6C, but the next 20 ppm to 450 would cause 1.4C, this despite the
fact that CO2 concentations have a diminishing return relationship to
temperature. Yeah, I understand time delays and masking, but really --
whoever wrote these paragraphs can't possibly have understood what he
was writing. Read the rest...
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