| on May 29, 2008, 12:15 PM E.S.T.
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“Correlation is not causation!” say the science types. The meaning
of this timeless refrain is clear: Just because you find two metrics
correlate, throughout space or time, does not necessarily mean one
metric is a causative agent of the other. Science cannot be useful to
us if it doesn’t measure reality, and part of reality is the coincidence.
Scientists must therefore be prepared for the eventuality in which they
invest treasure and ego into investigating causation, and ultimately
find out it just isn’t there.
Reverend
Al seems to have missed this. If you’ve watched his movie, you know an
important part of his theory is that two curved lines happen to match
up. He regales us with a story about one of his former classmates
accidentally discovering the theory of continental drift with his
observation that the eastern shoreline of South America is shaped very
much like the western shoreline of Africa. Then he looks at the
correlation between CO2 saturation and something called the mean global
temperature or some such. And wonders aloud: Huh. I wonder if we have
the same thing happening here?
He leaves his audience — which seems to be made up of young,
impressionable minds enrolled in scientific-like college courses — with
the impression that whenever you see two curved lines matching up, even
a little bit…the first thing you must do is rule out coincidence. Oh, boy. I wonder what science is going to be rolling past us in the next couple of decades?
Indeed, presented on some of the charts, the curves do seem
to line up very much like South America and Africa. Reverend Al,
therefore, presumes that correlation must be causation. And we’re told
“The Science Is Settled!” It is a curious situation, since scientists
like to talk about correlation NOT being causation. Reverend Al’s
theory is based on this — where are the scientists rushing out of the
woodwork to rap him across the knuckles? His theory is based on the
idea that correlation is causation — and on nothing else.
But Reverend Al has spoken. So if two curved lines match up, it must
mean something. Can I interject something here? If that is the litmus
test, I have a few things I’d like checked out. It’s pretty important.
Reverend Al has told us our planet is withering away and may not be
able to support life in a generation or two. I see correlation. Going
by his logic, that must mean causation. Thirty times, I see it. Using
Reverend Al’s science. So let’s look into it.
1. Illegal immigration
I’m told we have seventeen million illegal immigrants now, and just
a few years ago it was less than ten million. That’s a doubling. It’s a
doubling over exactly the same time frame that global warming is
supposed to have skyrocketed. Correlation, suddenly, is causation, so I
see a cause.
2. “Goldfish Rights” laws
In the early nineties, it looks like the mean global temperature was
in a nosedive. That’s when the Maastricht Treaty was signed, forming
the European Union. Once that gained momentum, the EU started inventing
lots of “rights” for people…then animals…now they’re awarding brand new rights to goldfish. What’s the mean global temperature been doing during this time? I see a connection. Let’s check it out.
3. Reality television shows
They got going, as the temperature went up. Now we’re up to our ears
in reality television shows, and the temperature is through the roof.
There’s no sign of a slowdown in either case. Check out a possible
connection, I say.
4. White kids learning how to rap
That was a 1990’s thing, wasn’t it? That’s when the temperature took off like a rocket. That’s when records were being set.
5. The phrase “I’d love to tell ya, but then I’d have ta kill ya!”
In the past few years, I hear it all the time. In the past few
years, global warming is supposed to be life-threatening. Correlation.
Must be causation.
6. Diminishing numbers of actors smoking cigarettes in movies
Haven’t you noticed? Back when cigarettes were smoked in movies, we didn’t have global warming.
7. Hillary Clinton opening her mouth and saying things in public
I never heard a peep out of her before 1992. Since 1998, when her
husband was exposed as a constant cheat, it seems I’ve seen her face on
the screen all over the place. That’s when global warming is supposed
to have been a real problem.
8. iPods
It’s a little bit behind the curve, but it could be worth checking
out. After all, they’re everywhere today, and we’re terrified of what
global warming’s gonna do to us.
9. The phrase “illegal and unjust war” repeated over and over again
I wouldn’t be surprised if it turned out the mean global temperature
went up a hundredth of a degree, every time this stupid phrase was
uttered. I’m sure the charts and graphs will bear this out to Reverend
Al’s liking.
10. Cell phone conversations that don’t really need to happen.
Could ya pick up some milk…what’re you doing…dude, you wouldn’t believe how much this movie sucks.
Back when those conversations just plain didn’t happen…global warming was, also, just plain not happening. I see a connection.
11. Diminishing number of pirates
Because it’s an Internet classic.
12. Liberals being angry and nasty
It started in ‘98 when Bill Clinton got in all that trouble, and
someone established moveon.org. Isn’t that our record-warm-year lately,
1998? Hmmmm….
13. Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction
Saddam was ordered to cease and desist, and open them up to
inspection, in 1991 as one of the conditions for the cease-fire. Then
you wait a few years…global warming takes off. Huh. My liberals keep
telling me there were no WMDs…but how can they know? Check it out, I
say.
14. Kids being diagnosed with exotic new learning disabilities
The 4A’s: Autism, Aspergers, ADHD and Allergies. Is anybody keeping
track of how often these things are diagnosed? And the skyrocketing is
almost perfectly parallel with the global warming thing…in a way that
would make Reverend Al proud.
15. Y2K compliant products
Think about it. All that fuss and effort to make things Y2K
compliant. From my vantage point, it seems looking back on it the
efforts began in earnest right around ‘97…by ‘98, they had sucked the
life out of us IT types. Reverend Al says 1998 was a record. Just
sayin’…
16. Fraudulent Voting
Illegal aliens. Dead people. People who live in different counties.
I don’t know if the illegitimate voting is on an upswing, but the
accusations of it certainly are…and where there’s smoke there must be
fire. Earth’s temperature is supposed to be up. Hmm. Seems
irresponsible to ignore this possible connection.
17. democrats telling us it’s okay to lie about your personal life
It didn’t become a talking point until sometime between 1998 and
1999…sometime when the results of the DNA test on that blue dress came
back. Up until then, of course, a lie was a lie was a lie. But since
then we’re in this weird, surreal universe in which when we catch a
politician lying, we have to prove it was “any of our business” before
we’re allowed to point out that he lied. And the mean global
temperature has done what?
18. Sandra Bullock making chick flicks instead of movies the fellas would appreciate
Coincidence? She makes Demolition Man…no global warming yet. She
makes Speed…no global warming. She makes Practical Magic…we have global
warming. From then on, Sandra makes movies to make the girls happy, and
neglects the guys who built her career by paying good money to see her
rescued by Keanu. Then she does it a few more times, and the global
temperature goes up and up and up. You have some explaining to do,
Sandra.
19. The shortage of kids actually playing outside and their mothers calling them home for supper
Did you go outside and play God-knows-where until your momma called
you home for supper? If so, then find the year on the graph at the top.
See where the global temperature is. Pretty low, isn’t it? And now,
kids play video games. We have global warming.
20. Hate crime legislation
Perhaps global warming is God’s way of punishing us for making it
our business what our fellow man is thinking…between his left ear…and
his right ear. It’s none of our business. When we meddle where we don’t
belong, nature has ways to retaliate. And Al Gore should like the
theory just fine, because hey, the lines fit.
21. Pants that droop and show off your butt crack
Another nineties fad. Except this one stuck around, and stuck
around, and stuck around some more. Global temperature was sent
sky-high. Cause. Effect.
22. Kids skateboarding in retail store parking lots after the manager has politely asked them not to
It used to be an occasional happenstance. And then it happened more
often, and more often, and more often still. We have global warming.
23. Barbra Streisand “final” and “going away” concerts
She keeps doing it. More and more often, it seems…during which time, the planet is being put in danger.
24. Baby boomers in positions of authority
I don’t have a theory yet for how one causes the other to happen.
But there’s gotta be one. It used to be baby boomers didn’t run much of
anything. They were too young. Now, everyone who runs anything of any
size, is born between 1945 and 1959. And…we have global warming.
25. Hollywood making crappy anti-war anti-American movies
They do it without even thinking about it, now. It doesn’t matter if
the last one they did, made any money or not (and by the way, they
never do).
26. The Macarena
It came and went in 1996, didn’t it? Look at that graph. Find 1996. Tell me you don’t see something.
27. Television judges
TOUGH. SMART. STRONG. FAIR. Television judges in the “Wapner” model on daytime television who CUT THROUGH THE CRAP.
They’ve become a form of pollution, just as thick and noxious as
carbon dioxide, or for that matter any other gas. I’ve lost track of
‘em all.
28. Oprah Winfrey recommending books to people
She keeps doing it, over and over again. And the global temperature keeps rising.
29. Goatees
Used to be, you only saw one once in awhile. By the time we had our
“warmest years on record,” if you tuned into the American Country Music
awards, you saw a room full of what looked like a hundred guys all
trying to look exactly like each other. Big-ass belt buckle…big-ass
cowboy hat…big-ass boots…silly looking facial hair, looked like they’d
been bobbing for apples in chocolate syrup, and then kissing feather
pillows turned inside out. Silly. Three things classically American,
coupled with one thing from 17th-century France. Who in the world
decided these go together?
And the earth got hotter.
30. Women in pantsuits
Yet another hot trend from the nineties that was never
questioned. More and more women, maybe with nice-lookin’ legs, but who
would ever know? — They’d cover up with these pantsuits, and the planet
sizzled.
These are all very silly ideas.
But not a single one of them as silly as the idea that carbon
dioxide causes global warming. Because the plants and the trees and the
flowers do not suck up Sandra Bullock movies or iPods. They do suck up carbon dioxide…which is a non-toxic gas in the first place.
Supposedly, if we unplug the coffee pot when it’s not in use, we can save the planet.
I think I’d rather see Sandra Bullock’s hooters. So I like my theories much better. Source
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