“Here we focus on the annual-maximum 2m-temperature and fit a Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution to the simulated values and investigate the development of the parameters of this distribution. Over most land areas both the location and the scale parameter increase. Consequently the 100-year return values increase faster than the average temperatures. A comparison of simulated 100-year return values for the present climate with observations (station data and reanalysis) shows that the ECHAM5/MPI-OM model, as well as other models, overestimates extreme temperature values. After correcting for this bias, it still shows values in excess of 50±C in Australia,
India, the Middle East, North Africa, the Sahel and equatorial and subtropical South America at the end of the century.”

The conclusion of the paper even recognizes the serious limitation of this paper.

“There are worryingly large biases in the simulation of present-day extremes, which imply
that the modeled future values may be biased. To improve estimates of the probability of extremely high temperatures in the coming decades, good observational data sets and investigations into the reasons for model biases affecting extreme temperatures are needed. However, even with these uncertainties, a 10% chance of exceeding 48±C every decade at any point in the red regions of Fig. 3b is a risk that should be taken seriously.”

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