 For
a long time, the UK Government has been trying to persuade both the
world generally, and the British electorate in particular, of a mighty
myth, perhaps the myth of myths in the ‘Global Warming’ stable of
myths, namely that it can successfully de-couple economic growth from
the growth in ‘greenhouse gas’ (GHG) emissions. Ministers talk glibly
of nonsensical tropes, like ‘zero-carbon’ housing, when we all know
that no such thing can possibly exist. So, why do the politicians cant
in such a way? In this particular instance, because they need,
politically, to build some 4 million new homes, which will inexorably
add considerably to rising carbon emissions. Unfortunately, if the
Government is to present itself as being ‘green’, such an inconvenient
fact cannot possibly be let out of the bag, especially as the only way
in which the Government will be able to progress some of the building
is by designating it as an ‘eco-town’. We are in
Humpty-Dumpty-On-Twaddle, I fear.
Now,
however, the Government’s cover has been blown into the stratosphere,
and its ‘global warming’ rhetoric has been exposed for what it is,
political myth-making on an industrial scale. As Roger Harrabin writes [‘UK in “delusion' over emissions”’, BBC Online Science/Technology News,
July 31], two new reports from the highly-respected Stockholm
Environment Institute (SEI), based at the University of York, reveal
the painful truth. Roger observes that these reports:
“...
are a massive blow to the British government which claimed to have
grasped the Holy Grail of climate policy - de-coupling economic growth
from emissions growth.”
Interestingly,
it appears that the Government was well aware that at least one of the
reports - the SEI report done for the Department for Environment, Food
and Rural Affairs (Defra) - might prove to be political dynamite. Roger
notes:
“The
government sat on the Defra SEI report since February, tested its
calculations, then published it in an obscure press release on 2 July.”
“A Big Lie”
And no wonder! Here is what the two reports reveal:
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+Ministers have claimed that CO2 emissions went down by 5% between 1992 and 2004; in fact, when all CO2 emissions are taken into account, they rose by a staggering 18%;
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+Between 1992 and 2004, ministers claim a decrease of 13% for all GHG emissions; full consumer-based GHG emissions actually rose by 13%;
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+In 2004, ministers claim GHG emissions were 657 million tonnes; the real-world figure is much higher at 979 million tonnes; and,
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+The figures for the complete basket of ‘greenhouse gases’, as distinct from just CO2, are made more dramatic because of methane from agriculture at a time when the UK rapidly increased meat imports.
Hm!
What can one say? But how precisely does the Government try to get away
with its sleight of hand? First, ministers conveniently forget the fact
that the carbon cuts claimed have only been achieved by exporting
much UK dirty work to countries like China, and then by ignoring the
consequences and resultant imports. Secondly, large sectors of the
economy are merrily excluded along with imports, including aviation and
shipping (which is experiencing significant increases in emissions).
Thus, in real-life terms, the Government’s figures, like its daft claims for zero-carbon houses, are a bureaucratic whitewash.
For
once, I have to confess to experiencing a twinge of sympathy for the
‘Green Bunnies’, as Stuart Bond, Head of Research at the World Wide
Fund for Nature (WWF), is reported as lamenting:
"This
shows our [UK] claims on emissions are simply a big lie. The government
has known about this for a very long time but has just refused to face
up to it.”
Indeed. So, when will our politicians face up to the plain, unvarnished truth?
They, and we, need economic growth to survive politically and economically. CO2
emissions, in particular, remain a key proxy measure of economic
growth. If the politicians are succeeding in the first, then they
cannot easily succeed in reducing the latter. To claim otherwise
qualifies them to join the Magic Circle.
The bottom line is simple: emissions will not be de-coupled from economic growth for a very long time to come. Full stop.
Have a cant-free weekend, one and all - and did you spot that car?
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