Dr David Stockwell, a leading expert on ecological niche modeling, checked the CSIRO’s figures and assumptions behind its warning of more drought thanks to global warming, and found in fact:

… that the results show no significant increase in drought due to greenhouse warming in almost all regions of Australia

Stockwell’s conclusions were hampered by the CSIRO’s refusal to hand over the data it had used to make its terrifying predictions. Eventually the CSIRO caved in, and Stockwell has since crunched its numbers and found the CSIRO’s models are in fact worthless, not even being able to “predict” past climate: 

In a statistical re-analysis of the data from the Drought Exceptional Circumstances Report, all climate models failed standard internal validation tests for regional droughted area in Australia over the last century. The most worrying failure was that simulations showed increases in droughted area over the last century in all regions, while the observed trends in drought decreased in five of the seven regions identified in the CSIRO/Bureau of Meteorology report. Therefore there is no credible basis for the claims of increasing frequency of Exceptional Circumstances declarations made in the report. These results are consistent with other studies finding lack of adequate validation in global warming effects modeling, and lack of skill of climate models at the regional scale.

This corroborates a recent study warning that climate models of the kind actually relied upon by the CSIRO are of no predictive value, given the difference between what they predict and what actually happens:

The results show that models perform poorly, even at a climatic (30-year) scale. Thus local model projections cannot be credible, whereas a common argument that models can perform better at larger spatial scales is unsupported.

And statistician Ian Castles has likewise discovered that the CSIRO seems to be contradicting itself when predicting worse droughts.

In short, Kevin Rudd seized on dud studies, useless models and contradictory findings to whip up global warming fears when he claimed:

Exceptional circumstances drought conditions ... will occur twice as often and with twice the area of droughted parts of Australia included. Now this is a serious revision of the impact of climate change on drought.

You have been misled.

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