Premier Gordon Campbell's ambitious targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions were in a sense drawn out of thin air.

Rather than any serious analysis of what it would take to get there, the goal of a 33 per cent reduction from 2007 levels by 2020 was based on his determination of what we need to achieve if we want to play an effective role in limiting the potentially harmful effects of climate change.

We got our first look at the changes required with the carbon tax and other measures introduced earlier this year.

Now the B.C. Climate Action Team has issued its recommendations to the provincial government that give a much clearer view of the magnitude of change that will be needed, along with interim targets that will have to be met by 2012 and 2016 to stay on track for the 33-per-cent reduction by 2020 reduction.

What is immediately clear is that the carbon tax now causing all the fuss at the gas pump is just the beginning. The panel recommends changes that will have much greater impact over time in the form of higher costs for any goods or services using energy and/or more provincial regulation of housing, transportation, community design and industry.

Before getting too excited about any particular regulation, it's important to remember that these are recommendations to the government, not government policy. At least not yet.

They are useful, however, in allowing British Columbians to understand what it really means to say we are concerned about climate change and ready to take it on. If these exact measures are not adopted, similar measures will have to be.

Are we willing to pay higher carbon taxes? Are we willing to pay more for air travel or stay at home more? Are we willing to create the bureaucracy and extra tax dollars that go with it to give every home in the province an energy audit, as recommended by the panel?

What if a hard cap for industry or a cap-and-trade system means a loss of jobs and incomes? How can our already hard-hit forest industry and pulp and paper sector compete with jurisdictions that don't face higher costs related to climate change?

One thread that twists through most of these issues is that uncertainty increases over time, both uncertainty in the accuracy of climate modelling and in the effect of policies we enact to reduce emissions.

That means that any policies will have to reflect the certainty that assumptions we make today may not hold true tomorrow.

Economic modelling around the gas tax, for instance, was based on a pump price that was far below the shocker that appeared on the day the levy finally took effect.

So the province will have to be constantly monitoring climate change initiatives to ensure that they are both effective and affordable for individuals and the economy as a whole.

The panel understates the political challenge with its recommendation on public outreach. This is not just a selling job that can be accomplished with an advertising campaign and a slick website.

The hard reality is that many of these measures will be viewed as bitter medicine. They will certainly be portrayed as such by political opportunists, as the New Democrats have shown with their attack on the carbon tax.

Tackling climate change is a commitment that must be measured in decades. If British Columbians don't accept the need for change and are not willing to accept the costs -- potentially higher taxes, fewer jobs and lower incomes -- no government will last long enough to impose it.

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