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What is interesting is that this study is based on computer predictions of the future with very little
historical data of the past to test their model. We've never had CO2
releases proceeding warming before, historically CO2 increases have
always followed warming (by 800-1500 years). Lets reemphasize this -
warming has always caused CO2 increases, not the other way around. The
Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) crowd generally accepts the historic
evidence of this, but they claim that man is artificially releasing CO2
this time around and that based on lab studies and computer models CO2
can also cause warming. There is no historic evidence to support this
theory. Volcanic eruptions cause massive CO2 releases but proxy records
indicate that such eruptions have always caused cooling, not warming.
To be fair volcano eruptions also block out a lot of sun light (though
new studies show that this solar dimming effect may not linger as long
as the CO2 so why didn't the earth quickly warm as the skies cleared?).
In
addition to no historic data to support their claims that atmospheric
CO2 leads to warming there are literally hundreds of climate computer
models each with thousands of poorly understood variables, each
producing different results. There are even publicly open projects for
testing models given slight changes to each variable. One of the
largest is at ClimatePrediction.net:
"By running the
model thousands of times (a 'large ensemble') we hope to find out how
the model responds to slight tweaks to these approximations - slight
enough to not make the approximations any less realistic. This will
allow us to improve our understanding of how sensitive our models are
to small changes and also to things like changes in carbon dioxide and
the sulphur cycle. This will allow us to explore how climate may change
in the next century under a wide range of different scenarios." - About
ClimatePrediction.net
It turns out that these very "slight
tweaks" can make a huge difference. Results from the same climate model
can change dramatically over time with just the smallest change to one
or more of the variables. Often the same model shows dramatic cooling
if variables are 'tweaked' just slightly. These tweaks, or adjustments,
are well within the boundaries of natural variability that are shown in
historic proxy records (e.g. ice cores, tree ring studies, etc.) to
have occurred before, and will happen again.
Basically what you have are computers being used to prove the "Butterfly Effect". The Butterfly Effect theory
basically refers to the idea that a butterfly's wings might create tiny
changes in the atmosphere that ultimately, over a long period of time,
can cause a dramatic change to the environment. When man's input of CO2
in to the atmosphere accounts for only 1/4 of 1% of greenhouse gases
(99.75% is natural) you begin to understand the Butterfly Effect
analogy. Many scientists have already concluded that this minuscule CO2
input is causing climate warming so they spend a lot of time, effort
and money adjusting their models to prove it. If you fed the effect of
a butterfly flapping its wings in to a computer model and then adjusted
all the other climate conditions around it to produce the perfect
conditions you can also prove that a butterfly flapping its wings can,
over time, cause climate change. You can also add a frog belch at just
the right time and the right place to the model and completely wipe out
the effect of the butterfly.
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