As Climate Science offers, we are open to the presentation of announcement of papers and of viewpoints by individuals actively involved in the climate science and climate policy community who want to widely distribute their views and analyses on climate science. Today, Climate Science presents a guest weblog by Christopher Monckton on the issue of radiative feedback.  Christopher Monckton has been an outspoken commentator on climate policy issues, however, his guest weblog on Climate Science concerns a science issue; namely what is the magnitude of the radiative feedback as reported by the IPCC? Climate Science has weblogged on this subject in

Climate Metric Reality Check #1 - The Sum Of Climate Forcings and Feedbacks Is Less Than The 2007 IPCC Best Estimate Of Human Climate Forcing Of Global Warming

Other climate scientists are encouraged to submit guest weblogs which support or seek to refute the analysis presented below. Ultimately, each contribution of this type needs to be submitted to peer reviewed scientific journals which is the most appropriate aribitrator of science.

Guest Weblog Christopher Monckton

In the IPCC’s methodology, climate sensitivity ΔT_λ to radiative forcing is the product of three factors:

1. Tropopausal radiative forcing ΔF

ΔF  ≈  5.35 ln(C/C₀)  ==>   ΔF_2x   ≈  5.35 ln 2         W m^-2,        (1)

where (C/C₀) is a proportionate increase in CO₂ concentration and, specifically, ΔF_2x ≈ 3.708 W m^-2 is the radiative forcing at CO₂ doubling. For simplicity, no significant error will arise here if it is assumed that all other anthropogenic forcings are slightly net-negative, so that ΔF_2x ≈ 5 ln 2 ≈ 3.466 W m^-2.

2. The no-feedbacks climate sensitivity parameter κ

κ  =  ΔT_κ / ΔF  =  ΔT_λ / (ΔF + bΔT_λ)        °K W^-1 m²,              (2)

where ΔT_κ is the temperature response to forcings only, without feedbacks; ΔT_λ is the temperature change in response to forcings plus feedbacks; and b is the sum in W m^-2 °K^-1 of all unamplified temperature feedbacks. The key parameter κ is not mentioned in IPCC (2007), and no error-bars are given. The value κ ≈ 0.313 °K W^-1 m² implicit in IPCC (2007) is the reciprocal of the “radiative cooling response” -

“Under these simplifying assumptions the amplification [f] of the global warming from a feedback parameter [b] (in W m^-2 °C^-1) with no other feedbacks operating is 1 / (1 + [bκ ^-1]), where [κ ^-1] is the ‘uniform temperature’ radiative cooling response (of value approximately -3.2 W m^-2 °C^-1; Bony et al., 2006). If n independent feedbacks operate, [b] is replaced by (λ₁ + λ ₂+ … λ _n).” (IPCC, 2007: ch.8, footnote)  Read rest...

Jürgen Hubert   |04-17-2008 07:19 This article deliberately distorts the available temperature data to get the bias the author wants. See link:http://jhubert .livejournal.com/181 274.html for details.

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