| on Apr 24, 2008, 02:22 PM E.S.T.
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A couple of days ago, AT focused attention on the possible climate effects of sunspots, as solar cycle 23 runs longer than forecast, in Sunspots and a Possible New Ice Age
. There are various measurements that scientists, as well as the
curious, are looking at and updating almost daily, such as the length
of cycle 23, number of days with no sunspots, and the official start of
cycle 24.
All
of it is interesting, though not very well understood. In some circles
there is a theory, increasingly backed up by data, that this extended
duration and low magnitude cycle 23 is the reason for recent cooling,
and that we may be in store for more cooling, maybe much more.
The Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) controversy has exposed much information, old and new. One of the more interesting papers
I have seen recently was written in the year 1999, and has to do with
barycentric analysis (celestial mechanics) of the solar system and its
possible effects on the solar cycle. In some scientific circles
celestial mechanics has already been "ruled out, even disparaged as
"astrology."
Being an engineer instead of a scientist, I can't help
but view it differently, looking at the data and the results, but not
yet understanding the complex mechanisms involved. It offers a unique
perspective on the 4 climate minimums during the last 1000 years, and
in 1999 more or less predicted the current low cycle 23 against a
consensus that was opposite.
To
briefly summarize the paper -- though you should read the whole thing
(the graphics help clear things up) -- the solar system has a center of
mass that is somewhere near the sun. Most of the time, the center of
mass is within the circumference of the sun, though it makes occasional
excursions outside the circumference of the sun. By employing
celestial mechanics using the 4 most influential planets revolving
around the sun, the authors determine a number of repeating cycles -- a
2402 year cycle, a number of 178 year periods within the 2402 years,
and a unique 370 year period also within the 2402 year cycle. They
discovered "ordered" and "disordered" motions of the center of mass
within the 178 year periods.
Of
interest to us right now is that we are entering (since 1985, and going
until 2040) one of these periods of "disordered" motion. What is most
interesting is that the last four "disordered" periods coincided with
the "Wolf", "Sporer", "Maunder", and "Dalton" climate minimums. See pp
401 of the paper (don't worry, it's not 400+ pages, it's an excerpt
from a journal of only a few pages) for a very visual graphic of this.
The paper contains many other items of interest, but this
particular piece is very relevant to the current AGW discussions. Not
necessarily to explain the warming that has undoubtedly occurred, but
to suggest that we may be entering a cooling period of some duration.
It suggests some level of predictive capability for solar activity,
which in turn implies a level of predictive capability for
climate:[extract from paper - this paper is written in 1999, 3 years
into cycle 23]
Since
solar motion is computable in advance, this permits predictive
assessments for future solar behavior. Moving along the disordered
orbit to 2035 AD. (Fig. 2, bottom), which is similar to that of the
second half of the nineteenth century (Fig. 3b), the Sun should develop
lower solar cycles (Rmax from 65 to 140) of very variable length (from
9.6 to 12.3 years). The initial development of the cycle 23, now in its
third year, confirms this for the present cycle.
None
of this science is "settled." A wide variety of theories exist, and
this one is among those which have received too little attention. Source
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